Almost every year end, most blogs – magazines – publications and so called “Linux gurus” makes mostly positive predictions about the future of Linux and it’s market share. Following this tradition, it’s only fair that I too share with you my Linux predictions for 2009.
- Linux will NOT take over Window or even Mac OS consumer desktop market share…
- However, it will most definitely will increase its own market share. Perhaps, not as drastic as we would like to see but significant nevertheless – compare to previous years.
- Increase in Netbook sales will continue to serve Linux well to help gain market share. As more distributors concentrate on keeping netbook cheap in a highly competitive market where there is demand for cheap computers in a failing economy.
- Ubuntu will finally improve its default ugly theme. Mark Shuttleworth has already mentioned his love for Mac OS X and how he wants Ubuntu to be just as good in desktop experience (his words, not mine). Canonical recently invested on hiring developers and designers for this purpose. Jaunty should be exciting.
- All major Linux distribution will finally agree on a simultaneous – six months – update schedule similar to Ubuntu.
- Linux adoption in developing and third-world nation will be of epic proportion.
So, these are my predictions for 2009. Share your predictions in the comments.
Here are some predictions made in the past by other linux-centric publications:
- 2008: Year of the Linux Desktop – “When Evans Data released its survey on Tuesday showing a sharp shift toward Linux (and away from Windows) among developers in North America, the Linux world went wild. Wistful pengiun heads heralded the coming Open Source Age. But the real measure of OS success is in the number of users, not the number of developers. After all, most of the world’s PCs end up in the hands of ordinary people who have no interest in coding. Fortunately for open-source addicts, there are several signs that the coming year could bring a sea-change among end users, making 2008 the year of the Linux desktop.” (Maximumpc.com – July 5, 2008)
- This is the Year of the Linux Desktop Breakout – “Declaring victory for the Linux desktop at the end of the day will based upon looking at market penetration of Linux based clients vs. Windows and other operating systems. I believe this is still the best measure but we may finally be able to declare this year the breakout of the Linux desktop.” (linux-foundation.org – Aug 26, 2008)
- Is 2008 the Year of the Linux Desktop? – “No doubt you’ve heard the prediction before — “this is going to be the year of the Linux desktop.” At the risk of being repetitive, though, I’m going to go ahead and say it: 2008 really could be the year of the Linux desktop.” (linux-mag.com – Nov 15, 2007)
- Linux breaks desktop barrier in 2004: Torvalds – “This year will see Linux finally crack the lucrative desktop market as more commercial software vendors tool up and cash in on the operating system and kernel developers improve graphical interface integration says cult hero and Linux founder Linus Torvalds.” (linuxworld.com.au – Jan 15, 2004)
- The Year of the Linux Desktop – “2003 will be marked by the emergence of three new enterprise desktop offerings. Corporations seem interested, especially with Microsoft boosting prices. So, once again, we ask: Is this the year of the Linux desktop?” (linux-mag.com – May 15, 2003 – Registration needed to read)
- The year of the Linux desktop has finally arrived – “While Windows advocates may smirk and say here we go again, as 2007 draws to a close I get the strong feeling that we may look back upon this year and recognize it with hindsight as the year that the Linux desktop finally arrived.” (itwire.com – Nov 4, 2007)
- Are we finally seeing the year of the Linux desktop? – “This past month has seen a flurry activity from a number of players in the Linux desktop space. Red Hat, Suse, Ubuntu, Dell, Lenovo and even Intel white box system builders are getting into the act. Is the year of the Linux desktop finally upon us or is this just another flare up generated by the Linuxworld conference in San Francisco?” (itwire.com – Aug 8, 2007)
- Dell hails 2008 as the year of the corporate Linux desktop – “The advent of desktop virtualisation will provide the missing link for Linux to shine on the corporate desktop, Dell chief technology officer Kevin Kettler predicted in a keynote speech at the Linuxworld conference in San Francisco.” (vnunet.com – Aug 8, 2007)